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ECONOMY

ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

Recent Trends in Indian Economy

  • India has undergone a paradigm shift owing to its competitive stand in the world. The Indian economy is on a robust growth trajectory and boasts of a stable annual growth rate, rising foreign exchange reserves and booming capital markets among others.

  • According to Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI), Indian economy is estimated to grow at 5 percent in 2012-13 as compared to the growth rate of 6.2 percent in 2011-12. These GDP figures are based at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for the year 2012-13. As per the given data Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in the year 2012-13 is likely to attain a level of US$ 1013.63 billion,as against the GDP estimates for the year 2011-12 of US$ 966.56 billion.


  • The sectors which registered growth rate of over 5 percent are construction, trade, hotels, transport and communication, financing, insurance, real estate and business services, and community, social and personal services. There may be slow growth in the sectors of agriculture, forestry and fishing (1.8 per cent), manufacturing (1.9 per cent) and electricity, gas & water supply (4.9 per cent). The growth in the mining and quarrying sector is estimated to be (0.4 per cent)


  • According to the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector is likely to show a growth of 1.8 per cent in its GDP during 2012-13, as against the previous year’s growth rate of 3.6 per cent.Production of foodgrains is expected to decline by 2.8 per cent as compared to growth of 5.2 per cent in the previous agriculture year. The production of cotton and sugarcane is also expected to decline by 4.0 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively, in 2012-13. Among the horticultural crops, production of fruits and vegetables is expected to increase by 3.5 per cent during the year 2012-13 as against 5.1 percent in the previous year.

  • The manufacturing sector is likely to show a growth of 1.9 per cent in GDP during 2012-13. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of 1.0 per cent and 4.4 per cent, respectively during April-November, 2012-13, as compared to the growth rates of 4.2 per cent and 9.5 per cent in these sectors during April-November, 2011-12. The mining sector is likely to show a growth of 0.4 per cent in 2012-13 as against negative growth of 0.6 per cent during 2011-12. The construction sector is likely to show a growth rate of 5.9 per cent during 2012-13 as against growth of 5.6 per cent in the previous year. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement production and steel consumption have registered growth rates of 6.1 per cent and 3.9 per cent, respectively during April-December, 2012-13.

  • The estimated growth in GDP for the trade, hotels, transport and communication sectors during 2012-13 is placed at 5.2 per cent as against growth of 7.0 percent in the previous year. This is mainly on account of decline of 3.4 per cent and 4.8 per cent respectively in passengers and cargo handled in civil aviation and decline of 3.1 per cent in cargo handled at major sea ports during April-November, 2012-13. There has been an increase of 4.3 per cent in stock of telephone connections as on November 2012. The sales of commercial vehicles witnessed an increase of 0.74 per cent per cent in April-December 2012. The sector,financing, insurance, real estate and business services, is expected to show a growth rate of 8.6 per cent during 2012-13, on account of 11.1 per cent growth in aggregate deposits and 15.2 per cent growth in bank credit as on December 2012 (against the respective growth rates of 17.2 per cent and 16.0 per cent in the corresponding period of previous year). The growth rate of community, social and personal services during 2012-13 is estimated to be 6.8 per cent.

  • The net national income (NNI) at factor cost, also known as national income, at 2004-05 prices is likely to be US$ 877.38 billion during 2012-13, as against the previous year's estimate of US$ 842.42 billion. In terms of growth rates, the national income registered a growth rate of 4.2 per cent in 2012-13 as against the previous year’s growth rate of 6.1 per cent.


  • The per capita income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2012-13 is likely to attain a level of US$ 721.06 as compared to the estimate for the year 2011-12 of US$ 700.851. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 2.9 per cent during 2012-13, as against the previous year's estimate of 4.7 per cent.

Growth in Gross Domestic Product

Percentage change for economic activities are depicted in table below:

S.No.
Industry
Percentage change over previous year
at constant (2004-05 prices)

at current prices

 
2011-12
2012-13
2011-12
2012-13
1
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
3.6
1.8
12.2
12.1
2
Mining & quarrying
-0.6
0.4
2.5
11.7
3
Manufacturing
2.7
1.9
11.2
7.7
4
Electricity, gas & water supply
6.5
4.9
10.5
18.3
5
Construction
5.6
5.9
15.1
13.9
6
Trade, hotels, transport & communication
7.0
5.2
18.5
12.8
7
Financing, insurance, real estate & business services
11.7
8.6
18.7
17.3
8
Community, social & personal services
6.0
6.8
14.9
16.0

Total GDP

6.2
5.0
15.0
13.3

Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, Government of India

 

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